Countries
United Kingdom
Our projection
Updated Saturday 24 Oct · 594 polls since the 2024 election · next update 31 Oct
Changes since
- LabG28.7%±4.5−5.0 since 2024
- Con21.2%±3.9−2.5 since 2024
- Ref20.7%±3.9+6.4 since 2024
- LD9.3%±2.5−2.9 since 2024
- Grn9.3%±2.6+2.6 since 2024
- RB3.8%±1.6+3.8 since 2024
- SNP2.5%±1.3±0.0 since 2024
- Others3.5%−2.7 since 2024
- PC1.0%+0.3
Voting intention
Our weekly projection since the 2024 election, with every poll as a dot behind it
Polls since the 2024 election
594 polls, newest first; each share tinted in its party's color. Click a poll to see it as a picture.
| Pollster | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | RB | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | |||||||||
21–23 Oct · 2,050 | 30 | 20 | 22 | 9 | 10 | – | 3 | 6 | Lab+8.0 |
21–22 Oct · 2,381 | 26 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 13 | – | 3 | 7 | Lab+5.0 |
15–22 Oct · 1,100 | 32 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Lab+8.0 |
18–19 Oct · 2,520 | 27 | 23 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Lab+4.0 |
16–19 Oct · 2,092 | 30 | 22 | 24 | 7 | 8 | – | 3 | 4 | Lab+6.0 |
16–19 Oct · 3,069 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Lab+5.0 |
14 Oct · 2,482 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 10 | 11 | – | 3 | 7 | Lab+3.0 |
5–14 Oct · 1,473 | 30 | 21 | 22 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Lab+8.0 |
11–12 Oct · 2,393 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | Lab+1.0 |
9–12 Oct · 2,101 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Lab+4.0 |
22 Sep – 12 Oct · 10,684 | 25 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 4 | Lab+3.0 |
9–11 Oct · 1,235 | 29 | 22 | 23 | 10 | 9 | – | 2 | 5 | Lab+6.0 |
7–9 Oct · 2,050 | 29 | 20 | 23 | 9 | 9 | – | 2 | 6 | Lab+6.0 |
7 Oct · 2,590 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 9 | 11 | – | 3 | 9 | Lab+2.0 |
4–5 Oct · 2,312 | 27 | 20 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Lab+5.0 |
How each pollster is weighted22 companies since the election, by how much we trust them
Convergent OpinionVery high
Good Growth FoundationVery high
OpiniumHigh
Lord Ashcroft PollsHigh
FocaldataHigh
SurvationAverage
We ThinkAverage
YouGovAverage
TechneAverage
Find Out Now/Electoral CalculusAverage
BMG ResearchAverage
Stack Data StrategyAverage
Whitestone InsightAverage
StonehavenAverage
JL PartnersAverage
More in CommonAverage
VerianAverage
Find Out NowAverage
IpsosLow
Freshwater StrategyLow
DeltapollLow
Trajectory PartnershipLow
From each company's record at past elections and how its recent polls compare with the others'. How this is worked out
Polls: Wikipedia's list of opinion polls for the next United Kingdom general election, each linked to the report it comes from (“source” next to the pollster). How the projection is worked out: Methodology.