Countries
Italy
Our projection
Updated Saturday 24 Oct · 1090 polls since the 2022 election · 1 new since, counted from 31 Oct
Changes since
- FdIG28.1%±4.4+1.9 since 2022118 seats−1
- PD19.7%±3.7+0.8 since 202287 seats+18
- M5S12.0%±2.9−3.4 since 202247 seats−5
- FIG7.1%±2.2−1.1 since 202244 seats−1
- FN7.0%±2.2+7.0 since 202219 seats+19
- AVS6.2%±2.0+2.6 since 202220 seats+8
- LegaG5.4%±1.9−3.5 since 202253 seats−13
- A2.9%±1.4−0.9 since 2022No seats−11
- IV2.3%±1.3−1.5 since 2022No seats−10
- +Europa1.5%±1.0−1.3 since 20222 seats
- Others4.2%−2.7 since 20222 seats−4
- PLD1.3%+1.3
- ScN1.2%+0.5· 1 seat
- NM1.1%+0.2· 7 seats
Voting intention
Our weekly projection since the 2022 election, with every poll as a dot behind it
Polls since the 2022 election
1090 polls, newest first; each share tinted in its party's color. Click a poll to see it as a picture.
| Pollster | FdI | PD | M5S | FI | FN | AVS | Lega | A | IV | +Europa | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | ||||||||||||
21–26 Oct · 1,200 | 29.3 | 20.6 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6.2 | FdI+8.7 |
21–22 Oct · 800 | 28 | 20 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 6.3 | FdI+8.0 |
20–22 Oct · 2,400 | 27.8 | 20.6 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 5.4 | FdI+7.2 |
5–22 Oct · 5,406 | 28.4 | 20 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3 | 2.6 | 1 | 5.8 | FdI+8.4 |
20–21 Oct · 800 | 27.7 | 20.1 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 6.1 | FdI+7.6 |
19–20 Oct · 1,000 | 26 | 20.5 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 8.8 | FdI+5.5 |
19 Oct · 500 | 28 | 20.5 | 13 | 7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | FdI+7.5 |
17–19 Oct · 1,000 | 26.5 | 20.5 | 12 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3 | 2 | 1.1 | 9 | FdI+6.0 |
14–19 Oct · 1,200 | 28.1 | 20.7 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 5.7 | FdI+7.4 |
14–15 Oct · 800 | 27.8 | 20 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 7 | FdI+7.8 |
13–15 Oct · 2,400 | 27.5 | 21.1 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 5.3 | FdI+6.4 |
13–14 Oct · 800 | 27.5 | 20.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.5 | FdI+7.4 |
12–14 Oct · 500 | 28 | 20 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 6.5 | 5 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | FdI+8.0 |
7–12 Oct · 1,200 | 27.7 | 20.4 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.1 | FdI+7.3 |
9 Oct · 754 | 28.4 | 20 | 13.4 | 7 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 4.9 | FdI+8.4 |
How each pollster is weighted26 companies since the election, by how much we trust them
Only NumbersVery high
Sigma PiaveVery high
EumetraVery high
EMG DifferentVery high
Proger IndexVery high
Lab21High
Termometro PoliticoHigh
SWGHigh
BiDiMediaAverage
Lab2101Average
PieopoliAverage
Cluster 17Average
Demos&PiAverage
Euromedia ResearchAverage
Stack Data StrategyAverage
AnalisiPoliticaAverage
EuromediaAverage
PiepoliAverage
EMGAverage
TecnèAverage
IxèAverage
QuorumLow
WinpollLow
NotoLow
IpsosLow
DemopolisLow
From each company's record at past elections and how its recent polls compare with the others'. How this is worked out
Polls: Wikipedia's list of opinion polls for the next Italian general election, each linked to the report it comes from (“source” next to the pollster). How the projection and the seats are worked out: Methodology.