Countries
France
Our projection
Updated Saturday 24 Oct · 10 polls since the 2024 election · next update 31 Oct
Changes since
- RN34.0%±4.9+0.9 since 2024253 seats+111
- NFP23.8%±4.0−4.2 since 2024134 seats−44
- ENSG14.4%±3.2−6.9 since 202440 seats−119
- LR11.5%±2.8+4.9 since 202473 seats+34
- REC4.5%±1.7+3.7 since 2024No seats
- DLF1.1%±0.9+0.8 since 20241 seat+1
- Others10.7%+0.7 since 202476 seats+17
Voting intention
Our weekly projection since the 2024 election, with every poll as a dot behind it
Polls since the 2024 election
10 polls, newest first; each share tinted in its party's color. Click a poll to see it as a picture.
| Pollster | RN | NFP | ENS | LR | REC | DLF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | |||||||
7–8 Oct · 1,386 | 35 | 24 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 1 | RN+11.0 |
6–7 Oct · 1,012 | 34 | 24 | 16 | 13 | 5 | – | RN+10.0 |
| September 2025 | |||||||
5–8 Sep · 1,089 | 34 | 24 | 14 | 12 | 3.5 | 2 | RN+10.0 |
5–7 Sep · 1,133 | 29 | 25 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 1.5 | RN+4.0 |
4–5 Sep · 2,017 | 33 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 5 | – | RN+7.0 |
29 Aug – 1 Sep · 1,369 | 33 | 25 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1.5 | RN+8.0 |
| August 2025 | |||||||
28–29 Aug · 1,563 | 31.5 | 23.5 | 14 | 10.5 | 5 | – | RN+8.0 |
| June 2025 | |||||||
3–5 Jun · 1,496 | 32.5 | 21 | 15.5 | 10 | 3 | – | RN+11.5 |
3–4 Jun · 1,385 | 36 | 21 | 18 | 11 | 2 | 1 | RN+15.0 |
| February 2025 | |||||||
5–6 Feb · 1,377 | 36 | 27 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | RN+9.0 |
2024 electionResult 30 Jun 2024 | 33.2 | 28.0 | 21.3 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | RN+5.2 |
How each pollster is weighted5 companies since the election, by how much we trust them
ElabeVery high
OpinionWayHigh
HarrisHigh
Cluster17High
IfopAverage
From each company's record at past elections and how its recent polls compare with the others'. How this is worked out
Polls: Wikipedia's list of opinion polls for the next French legislative election (first round), each linked to the report it comes from (“source” next to the pollster). How the projection and the seats are worked out: Methodology.