Countries

Estonia

Our projection

Updated Saturday 24 Oct · 254 polls since the 2023 election · next update 31 Oct

Changes since
  1. Isamaa
    25.1%±4.4
    +16.9 since 2023
  2. Kesk
    19.9%±3.9
    +4.6 since 2023
  3. SDE
    15.5%±3.7
    +6.2 since 2023
  4. EKRE
    12.4%±3.1
    −3.7 since 2023
  5. RefG
    12.2%±3.0
    −19.0 since 2023
  6. Parem
    8.4%±2.6
    +8.4 since 2023
  7. E200G
    1.6%±1.1
    −11.7 since 2023
  8. VL
    0.0%±0.6
    −2.4 since 2023
  9. Others1.3%−1.9 since 2023
  • Koos1.4%+1.4
  • EER1.2%+0.2
  • ERK0.8%+0.8

Voting intention

Our weekly projection since the 2023 election, with every poll as a dot behind it

0%10%20%30%40%AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOctElectionIsamaa 25.1Kesk 19.9SDE 15.5EKRE 12.4Ref 12.2Parem 8.4E200 1.6

Polls since the 2023 election

254 polls, newest first; each share tinted in its party's color. Click a poll to see it as a picture.

PollsterIsamaaKeskSDEEKRERefParemE200VLOthersLead
September 2026
Norstat
22–27 Sep · 1,000
27.619.114.414.212.47.71.6–3Isamaa+8.5
August 2026
Norstat
24–29 Aug · 1,000
24.120.419.111.813.56.71.5–1.5Isamaa+3.7
Norstat
17–23 Aug · 1,000
25.923.613.911.313.37.51.5–2.1Isamaa+2.3
Norstat
9–15 Aug · 1,000
22.321.214.413.9137.91.6–3.3Isamaa+1.1
Turu-uuringute AS
6–12 Aug · 902
242115131191–5Isamaa+3.0
Norstat
2–9 Aug · 1,000
29.921.513.513.811.74.41.90.32.2Isamaa+8.4
Norstat
26 Jul – 2 Aug · 1,000
25.322.715.412.214.15.81.4–1.9Isamaa+2.6
July 2026
Norstat
20–26 Jul · 1,000
25.123.115.412.912.15.21.20.32.8Isamaa+2.0
Norstat
13–20 Jul · 1,000
2520.31317.712.46.52–2.4Isamaa+4.7
Emor
6–16 Jul · 1,554
24.420.314.314.214.16.81.9–3.8Isamaa+4.1
Norstat
6–13 Jul · 1,000
27.922.411.81510.371.60.13.9Isamaa+5.5
Norstat
29 Jun – 5 Jul · 1,000
26.720.313.813.413.75.92–4.2Isamaa+6.4
June 2026
Turu-uuringute AS
16–25 Jun · 906
222215131273–6Tie
Norstat
15–20 Jun · 1,000
26.32314.611.812.86.71.60.33.3Isamaa+3.3
Emor
8–17 Jun · 1,587
23.521.516.213.4128.72.1–2.8Isamaa+2.0
How each pollster is weighted4 companies since the election, by how much we trust them
EmorVery high
Kantar EmorVery high
Turu-uuringute ASHigh
NorstatHigh

From each company's record at past elections and how its recent polls compare with the others'. How this is worked out

Polls: Wikipedia's list of opinion polls for the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, each linked to the report it comes from (“source” next to the pollster). How the projection is worked out: Methodology.